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全面两孩实施一周年新增人口远低预期 不乏纠结和预警
2017-01-11 17:31:24   来源:

2016NIAN1YUE1RI,YISHENGXIANGLIANGDETIKU,ZHENGZHOUSHIMINZHAONVSHIDEDIERGEHAIZIJIANGSHENGLE,BIYUCHANQIWANLELIANGTIAN。“WODANGSHIGAOXINGDEDOUKULE!PATAZAOCHULAI,WOTANGZAICHUANGSHANGYIZHOUMEIGANDONG。ZHILE!”

南方证券开户ZHEIGEXINGYUNERCHUSHENGDERIZISHIQUANMIANLIANGHAIZHENGCESHISHIDEDIYITIAN,ZHEIYIWEIZHE,TASHIHEFACHUSHENGDE,TADEJIATINGYEWUXUCHENGDANRENHECHAOSHENGCHUFA。ERRUGUOTAZAOYITIANCHUSHENG,QINGKUANGJIANGWANQUANBUTONG。

ZHEIYITIAN,BUGUANGDUIZHAONVSHIYIJIA,DUIZHONGGUOMINZHONGLAISHUODOUSHIYIGETESHUDERIZI。SHIXINGLEJIN40NIANDEDUSHENGZINVZHENGCEZHENGSHIXUANGAOZHONGJIE,ZHONGGUOJINRULEQUANMIANLIANGHAISHIDAI。

ZHENGCESHISHIYIZHOUNIANZHIHOU,DIYIJIZHEGUANCHAFAXIAN,QUANMIANLIANGHAISHIDAIBUFAJIUJIEHEYUJING。

离预期有多远

BUSHAOJIGOUCENGYUCE,ZHENGCELUODIHOUHUICHUXIANMINGXIANDESHENGYUDUIJI。ZHIYUDIYINIANXINZENGJIADECHUSHENGRENKOU,GEFANGYUJICONG400WANDAOQIBABAIWANBUDENG,GEBIEXUEZHEDEGUJIGENGSHICHAOGUOQIANWAN。JISHISHIZUIBAOSHOUDEYUCE,2016NIANZENGJIADECHUSHENGRENKOUYEHUICHAOGUO200WAN。

CONGGESHENGSHIDEJIANDANGFENMIANSHUJUKAN,2016NIANDEQUEZAIBUSHAODIFANGCHUXIANLEYUNCHANRENSHUMINGXIANSHANGSHENGDEXIANXIANG。YIBEIJINGWEILI,2014NIANXINSHENGERSHULIANGWEI20.8WANREN,2015NIANWEI17.2WANREN。GENJUBEIJINGSHIWEIJIWEIDEYUCE,2016NIANQUANNIANXINSHENGERSHULIANGJIANGKENENGTUPO30WANREN。

南方证券开户BEIJINGXINSHENGERSHULIANGJIZENG,CHULEWAIDILAIJINGYUNCHANFUZENGJIAWAI,YIGEZHONGYAOYUANYINSHI,BEIJINGZUOWEIZHENGZHI、WENHUAZHONGXIN,JUJILEDALIANGZHENGFUJIGUAN、SHIYEDANWEI、GAOXIAO、GUOYOUQIYEZONGBUDENG。ZHEIXIEBUMENDEYUANGONGQIAQIASHISHOUJIHUASHENGYUZHENGCEXIANZHIZUIQIANGDERENYUAN,YEJIUSHISHUO,ZHEIPIRENZAIQUANMIANLIANGHAIZHENGCESHISHIZHIQIANCHAOSHENGDEBILIFEICHANGDI,YINCIZAIZHENGCEFANGKAIHOUSHENGYUYIYUANDESHIFANGGENGJIAMINGXIAN。

南方证券开户LAIZISHANGHAISHIDIYIFUYINGBAOJIANYUANDESHUJUXIANSHI,2016NIANSHANGBANNIANFENMIANLIANGWEI15489REN,BISHANGNIANTONGQISHANGSHENGLE30%。TONGYANG,LAIZISHANDONG、JIANGSUDENGXIANSHIYIYUANDESHUJUDOUBIAOMINGLEYUNCHANRENSHUDEMINGXIANSHANGSHENG。

NANJINGDAXUERENKOUXUEZHECHENYOUHUABIAOSHI,QUANMIANLIANGHAIZHENGCESHISHIZHIHOU,CHUXIANYIDINGDESHENGYUDUIJISHIFEICHANGZHENGCHANGDE。“RUGUOSHENGYUZHENGCEFANGKAIZHIHOUDOUMEIYOUMINGXIANDESHENGYUDUIJI,NEIJIUTAIKEPALE。WOMENXUYAODANXINDEBUSHIZHEIGESHENGYUDUIJITAIDA,ERSHITAIXIAO,TAIDUANZAN。”

2016NIANQUANNIANDEXINSHENGERSHULIANGSHANGWEIGONGBU,DANYIYOUBUFENBUMENHEJIGOUZUOLEYUCE。ZAIZHISHUWEIJIWEIDEZHONGGUORENKOUYUFAZHANYANJIUZHONGXINGUANWANG股票配资 SHANG,YOUYIGEMEIMIAOZHONGDOUZAIBIANDONGDERENKOUSHIZHONG,SHISHIXIANSHIZHONGGUORENKOUZONGSHUHECHUSHENGRENKOUSHULIANG。2016NIAN12YUE31RI,GAIRENKOUSHIZHONGXIANSHI2016NIANCHUSHENGRENKOUDEZONGLIANGWEI1618WANREN,DIYU2015NIANDE1655WAN。

ANZHAOWEIJIWEIFUZHURENWANGPEIANZAI2016NIAN11YUEYIGELUNTANSHANGDESHUOFA,2016NIANQUANNIANCHUSHENGRENKOUYUJICHAOGUO1750WAN。WANGPEIANBIAOSHI,ZHEIGECHUSHENGRENKOUSHUJUYUQUANMIANLIANGHAIZHENGCECHUTAISHIDEYUPANJIBENWENHE。1750WANYIWEIZHEQUANMIANLIANGHAIDIYINIANCHUSHENGRENKOUZENGJIADESHULIANGZAI100WANZUOYOU,DADADIYUCIQIANDEYUCE。

70HOUZAIQUANMIANLIANGHAISHISHIDIYINIANSHENGYUERHAIDEJIJIXINGXIANGDUIJIAOGAO,ZHONGYAOYUANYINZHIYIJIUSHINIANLINGBUDENGREN。DUI70HOUNVXINGLAISHUO,SHENGYUERHAIDESHIJIANCHUANGKOUYIJINGFEICHANGZHAI。YOUQISHI1970~1975NIANCHUSHENGDENVXING,ZAIYUNDENANDUBIJIAODA。BUFEN70HOUZHUAJINPINERHAIDEJIQIEXINLICONGGEYIYUANFUCHANKEDEJIANDANGRENQUNZHONGYEKEKANCHU。JUBEIJINGSHIFUXINGYIYUANFUCHANKEZHURENJIANGGUIYINGJIESHAO,2016NIANLAIJIANDANGDEGAOLINGCHANFUMINGXIANZENGDUO,YOUXIERENZIRANSHOUYUNBUCHENGGONGJIUXUANZELEZUOSHIGUANYINGER。

南方证券开户XIANGBIERYAN, 80HOUJIUCONGRONGDEDUO。CONGNIANLINGKAN,80HOUZAI26SUIZHI36SUI,YOUYUWANHUNWANYUDEQUSHI,ZHEIGENIANLINGJIEDUANZHONGXIANGDANGYIBUFENRENHAIMEIYOUJIEHUN,LINGYOUYIBUFENRENTOUTAIHAIZIGANGCHUSHENGBUJIU,YIBUFENBUYUANYIYAOERHAI,JISHIYUANYIYAODE,YEBUXIANG70HOUNEIMEZHEJI。

南方证券开户ZHEIJIUSHIDEQUANMIANLIANGHAIZHENGCEDESHISHICHUXIANZHEIYANGYIZHONGCUOWEI,XIANGSHENGDESHENGBUCHU,SHENGDECHUDEYOUBUYUANYISHENGHUOZHEBUZHEJISHENG。ZHEIZHONGCUOWEIZUIZHONGJIANGZAIQUANNIANXINSHENGERSHULIANGSHANGXIANSHICHULAI。

ERCONGZHENGTIKAN,MINZHONGSHENGYUERHAIDEYIYUANBINGBUQIANGLIE。GENJUQUANGUOFULIANDEZUIXINDIAOCHA,YOU53.3%DESHOUFANGJIATINGBUXIANGSHENGYUDIERGEHAIZI,ZAICHENGSHI,ZHEIYIBILICHAOGUO60%。

计生系统的转型挑战

QUANMIANLIANGHAIZHENGCEJISHISHENGYUZHENGCEDELISHIXINGZHUANZHE,YESHIJIHUASHENGYUXITONGDEJUDATIAOZHAN。ZHEIYIWEIZHEJIHUASHENGYUGONGZUOJIUYOUDERENKOUGUANNIAN、GONGZUOFANGFAHEGONGZUONEIRONGDOUYAOJINXINGDABIANGE,XUYAOZHENZHENGCONGKONGZHIRENKOUSHULIANGWEIZHUZHUANXIANGTIGONGFUWUWEIZHU。

南方证券开户YUZHUANBIANGONGZUONEIRONGXIANGBI,ZHUANBIANRENKOUGUANNIANRENWUGENGJIAJIANJU。ZHEJIANGSHENGYIJIASHIYEDANWEIDEJISHENGBANZHURENGAOSUDIYI,JICENGDEJISHENGGONGZUORENYUANDUIQUANMIANLIANGHAIZHENGCESHIHUANYINGDE,YINWEIGONGZUONANDUDADAJIANGDI,YALIBIANXIAOLE。“ZHENGCEFANGKAILE,BUXUYAOZAIQIANGZHIZHEBURANGRENJIASHENGERHAILE,WOMENQINGSONGDUOLE。”

我感觉到他们不大情愿,还是有拖延抵抗的心态。原因很简单,就是改革之后还有没有位子。”一位不愿意透露姓名的计生内部人士说。

CHUZAIJISHENGXITONGBUTONGJIBIELINGDAOGANGWEIDERENSHIDUIYUQUANMIANLIANGHAIZHENGCEDEXINQINGBIJIAOFUZA。“

QUANMIANLIANGHAIZHENGCELUODIZHIHOU,DUOWEIRENKOUXUEZHEJIANYI,YINGGAITONGGUOYANZHANGCHANJIA、JIANGYOUERJIAOYUNARUYIWUJIAOYUDENGZUOFA,JIANQINGSHENGYUERHAIJIATINGDEYANGYUCHENGBEN,GULIGENGDUORENSHENGYUERHAI,FOUZEQUANMIANLIANGHAIZHENGCEYEYOUKENENGXIANGDANDULIANGHAIZHENGCEYIYANGYULENG。

南方证券开户CONGGUOQUYINIANDESHIJIKAN,GULISHENGERHAIDEZUOFAYUANYUANMEIYOUDAOWEI,XIANGFAN,ZAIBUFENSHENGSHIDEJISHENGXITONGHEDANWEI,ZUAIZHENGCELUOSHIDEXIANXIANGLVJIANBUXIAN。

低生育率大势难改

ZENGJIALAODONGLIGONGYING、HUANJIELAOLINGHUASHISHISHIQUANMIANLIANGHAIZHENGCEDELIANGDACHUZHONG。WANGPEIANZAIQUANMIANLIANGHAIXINWENFABUHUISHANGGONGBU,SHISHIQUANMIANLIANGHAIZHENGCEHOU,MEINIANXINZENGDECHUSHENGRENKOUPINGJUNKENENGDADAO300WAN。DAO2050NIANKEZENGJIAYUE3000WANLAODONGLI,SHILAONIANRENKOUZHANZONGRENKOUBIZHONGJIANGDI2GEBAIFENDIAN。

南方证券开户DIYICAIJINGCAIFANGLESHIYUWEIRENKOUXUEZHE,JINGUANDUIYUMUQIANSHENGYULVSHIJISHUIPINGPANDUANLVEYOUBUTONG,QUEYIZHIRENTONG,CONGMUQIANQUANMIANLIANGHAIDESHISHIQINGKUANGLAIKAN,ZENGJIACHUSHENGRENKOUDEXIAOGUONANYANLEGUAN。

BEIJINGDAXUERENKOUXUEZHELIJIANXINRENWEI,MUQIAN80HOUCHENGWEIHUNYUZHUTI,ZHEIYIQUNTIHUNYUNIANLINGDETUICHIQUSHIFEICHANGMINGXIAN,ZHUDONGXUANZEBUHUNHUOBUYUDERENYUELAIYUEDUO,ZAIJIASHANGYULINGFUNVZHENGZAIYINGLAIDUANYASHIJIANSHAO,ZHONGGUOMIANLINDEDISHENGYULVWEIJIFEICHANGYANJUN,QUANMIANLIANGHAIZHENGCEGENBENWUFAGAIBIANZHEIYIWEIJI。

南方证券开户SHEHUIKEXUEYUANRENKOUYULAODONGJINGJIYANJIUSUORENKOUXUEZHEZHENGZHENZHENRENWEI,JINGUAN2016NIANQUANNIANDECHUSHENGRENKOUSHUJUHAIWEIGONGBU,DANSHIKEYIKANDAO,ZHONGGUOZAI2014 NIANHOUZHUBUDIAOZHENGSHENGYUZHENGCEBINGGUODUDAOMUQIANDE“QUANMIANLIANGHAI”ZHENGCEZHIHOU,CHUSHENGRENSHUBINGWEICHUXIANDAFUDUZENGZHANG。

南方证券开户YOUYUSHENGYUYIYUANHESHIJISHENGYUXINGWEICUNZAIJIAODADELUOCHA,MUQIANZHONGGUOZONGHESHENGYULVXIANZHUDIYUSHENGYUYIYUAN,GENJUBUTONGXUEZHEDEYANJIU,DAZHIZAI1.4~1.6ZHIJIAN。

ZHONGGUORENKOUXUEHUIHUIZHANGZHAIZHENWUBIAOSHI,JISHISHENGYUZHENGCEQUANMIANFANGKAI,DUISHENGYULVDEYINGXIANGYEYIJINGHENXIAOLE,YINWEIYINGXIANGSHENGYULVDEBUGUANGSHISHENGYUZHENGCE,HAIYOUZINVZHAOLIAO、NVXINGJIUYEHECHENGZHENHUADENG。KAOLVDAORENKOUGENZIYUANHUANJINGGEFANGMIANDEJINZHANGGUANXI,YINGDANGWENTUOTUIJINSHENGYUZHENGCEDEDIAOZHENGWANSHAN。

LIJIANXIN、CHENYOUHUA、RENMINDAXUEJIAOSHOUGUBAOCHANGDENGRENKOUXUEZHEJIANYI,BUYAOZHIBUYUQUANMIANLIANGHAI,ERYINGJINKUAIFANGKAISHENGYUXIANZHI,BAZIZHUSHENGYUQUANHAIJIMINZHONG。

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